WTPZ44 KNHC 280239 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016

800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CONVECTION IS NOT AS DEEP AS EARLIER TODAY.

HOWEVER, THE PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED

CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE

TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO

BE MOVING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3

DAYS AND OVER WARM WATERS. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME

INTENSIFICATION. AFTER THAT TIME HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KT, AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS HUMID,

RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO

ITS PREDECESSOR, AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.



SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT MADELINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-

NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ON

THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS APPROACHING A

LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD

STEER MADELINE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR TWO. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AND BE REPLACED

BY A STRONG RIDGE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE

MADELINE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT

WITH THIS SOLUTION, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS IN A NARROW GAP

BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE CONSENSUS AT DAY 5, THE NHC=