WTPZ44 KNHC 270250 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016

800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016



SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE BAND

ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY

AROUND THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWS AN IMPROVED INNER

CORE STRUCTURE, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS THE VERTICAL ALIGNMENT IS A BIT

TILTED DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

RANGE BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT, AND WITH THE INCREASED SATELLITE

PRESENTATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, THE WIND SPEED IS SET TO 35

KT FOR THIS CYCLE.



MADELINE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C AND IN A LOW-TO-MODERATE

EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD

ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION, AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE

CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST

PERIOD THE SSTS COOL AND THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT

SOMEWHAT, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE GUIDANCE IS A

LITTLE HIGHER THAN 6 HOURS AGO, AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND, REMAINING CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BELOW THE

IVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.



SATELLITE FIXES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10.

MADELINE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW

DAYS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE

CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AT LONG RANGE DUE TO A

NEW RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.  MODELS ARE NOT IN

GREAT AGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHEN THAT TURN WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THE

DETAILS OF THE MOTION APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO EXACTLY HOW STRONG