WTPZ44 KNHC 262033 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016

200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016



VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN

THE WESTERN PART OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN HAS DEVELOPED A

WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND HAS SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE

CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN DISPLAYS A

CDO FEATURE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION

DUE TO SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE.  THE CYCLONE

WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C AND IN A LOW-TO-MODERATE EASTERLY

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR

STEADY INTENSIFICATION, AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE

BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD

THE SSTS COOL AND THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT, WHICH SHOULD

RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE

TO OR A LITTLE BELOW THE IVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10 GIVEN THE

RECENT FORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY

SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED

NEAR 125W.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST

COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND

THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A NEW RIDGE BUILDS NORTH

OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION AT

DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD=