WTPA45 PHFO 312052

TCDCP5



HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016



Visible satellite imagery shows that the western portion of the low

level circulation center has been exposed by continued westerly

vertical wind shear. Deep convection is confined to the northeast

quadrant and becoming increasingly distanced from the center. Dvorak

current intensity estimates range from 4.0/65 kt at HFO and JTWC to

3.5/55 kt out of SAB. For this advisory, the initial intensity is set

at 65 kt, keeping Madeline a hurricane. U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance

aircraft were scheduled to sample the hurricane this morning but have

encountered mechanical issues that have prevented this mission.



The initial motion for this advisory remains slightly south of due

west at 260/11 kt. Madeline is expected to be steered along a

similar motion into Thursday by a building low to mid level ridge to

the northwest and north. This will take the center of Madeline close

to the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) tonight. By Thursday

night or Friday, the cyclone is expected to resume a westerly

track, away from the main Hawaiian Islands, through Monday. The

forecast track has been changed little from the prior advisory and

runs along the northern portion of a rather tightly clustered

guidance envelope. There is some along track differences in the

guidance, with the ECMWF being notably faster with the forward

motion of Madeline.



Madeline will continue to weaken during the next several days under

the influence of vertical wind shear produced by the upper level

trough dropping over Hawaii. The official intensity forecast

follows SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN closely through 48 hours. Beyond that

time the guidance diverges due to a weakening of the vertical wind

shear. The rate of weakening was slowed slightly from the prior

advisory, though a fair amount of guidance members show

re-intensification when the cyclone is well west-southwest of Hawaii.

Due to this, interests near Johnston Atoll should monitor the

progress of Madeline.



Due to the intensity trend and growing confidence in the track

forecast, hurricane conditions are no longer expected on land, and

the Hurricane Warning for the Big island has been replaced by a

Tropical Storm Warning. Under a Tropical Storm Warning, people on

the Big Island can still expect damaging winds, very large and

dangerous surf, and the continued threat of flash flooding.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  31/2100Z 18.6N 154.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  01/0600Z 18.2N 155.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  01/1800Z 17.9N 158.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  02/0600Z 17.8N 160.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  02/1800Z 17.8N 163.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  03/1800Z 17.9N 168.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  04/1800Z 18.0N 173.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 18.4N 177.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Wroe