WTPA45 PHFO 302100 RRA

TCDCP5



HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 AM HST TUE AUG 30 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MADELINE SHOWED A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT

THIS MORNING BUT HAS SINCE DEGRADED IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS MADE

SEVERAL HELPFUL PASSES THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM

FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KT WERE RECORDED IN THE NORTHEAST

QUADRANT, THOUGH A PEAK SFMR OBSERVATION OF 115 KT WAS REPORTED.

MEANWHILE, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 6.0/115 KT

AT HFO TO 5.0/90 KT OUT OF JTWC AND SAB, WHILE ALL AGENCIES

PRODUCED A FINAL T OF 5.0/90 KT. GIVEN THE MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTS

FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE RANGE OF THE DATA, THE CURRENT INTENSITY

IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/09 KT. MADELINE IS

MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL

RIDGE, WHILE A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD

THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MADELINE ON

A WESTWARD-MOVING TRACK TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE

NORTH BUILDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPARTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN

THE HIGH LEVELS OF THE CYCLONE. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER

OF MADELINE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII

LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GIVEN ITS CLOSE APPROACH AND

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST, A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN

ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

MADELINE IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE=