WTPA45 PHFO 300850 RRA

TCDCP5



HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016



MADELINE REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED THIS EVENING, WITH AN EARLIER

13 NM DIAMETER EYE NOW BEGINNING TO SHRINK. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO

SHEAR DEFORMATION PRESENT, WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW NOTED TO THE

NORTH. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COMPLETELY ENCIRCLE THE EYE,

WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT MORE TO NEAR -72

DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

ARE 6.0/115 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE ANALYSIS CENTERS, WHILE

UW-CIMSS PROVIDES AN ADT OF 5.5/102 KT. WE WILL ASSIGN MADELINE AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY CYCLE, BASED ON THE

UNANIMOUS SATELLITE CENTER INTENSITIES. HURRICANE HUNTERS FROM THE

53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON ARE SLATED TO BEGIN FLYING

INVESTIGATIVE FLIGHTS INTO MADELINE TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL

GIVE US VALUABLE INFORMATION AS TO MADELINE'S ACTUAL INTENSITY AND

SIZE.



INITIAL MOTION IS 280/08 KT AS THE ANTICIPATED TREND TOWARD A MORE

WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS

TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 36 HOURS, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE NOTICEABLY

AFTER THAT. MADELINE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BUT AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN LATITUDE OVER THE PAST

FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD

THROUGH 48 HOURS, GIVING THE RIDGE A LARGER STEERING ROLE BY

NUDGING MADELINE WESTWARD AND WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH DAY 2.

BEYOND 72 HOURS, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DIGGING=