WTPA45 PHFO 300306 RRA

TCDCP5



HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

500 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016



MADELINE CONTINUES ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT BEGAN

YESTERDAY EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A STRONG AND WELL-

ORGANIZED MAJOR HURRICANE, WITH CLOUDS HAVING CLEARED THE EYE A

SHORT WHILE AGO. A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION TOTALLY ENCIRCLES THE

NEWLY-CLEARED EYE, WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER

OF -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM

5.5/102 KT TO 6.0/115 KT, AND ADT FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATED A CURRENT

INTENSITY NEAR 110 KT. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION

FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND A BLEND OF THE FIX DATA, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KT. HURRICANE

HUNTERS FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECOGNIZANCE SQUADRON ARE SLATED TO

BEGIN FLYING INVESTIGATIVE FLIGHTS INTO MADELINE TUESDAY MORNING,

WHICH WILL GIVE US VALUABLE INFORMATION AS TO MADELINE'S ACTUAL

INTENSITY AND SIZE.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 290/09 KT, AND

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS PRESENTED

BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, DESPITE A SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC STEERING

PATTERN. MADELINE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHILE A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LIES FAR TO THE NORTH,

AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.

MADELINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRAJECTORY INTO EARLY

TUESDAY, AFTER WHICH TIME THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FILL, AND MID-

LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE=