WTPA45 PHFO 292104 RRA

TCDCP5



HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016



MADELINE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTING A CLOUD-FILLED EYE ENCIRCLED BY

A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. EXCEPT FOR SOME MODEST RESTRICTION

IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OTHERWISE

UNIMPEDED AND THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN ON AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC

APPEARANCE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB/HFO/GTW

ALSO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY, WITH LATEST

ESTIMATES INDICATING 5.5/103 KT. ADT FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES AN

INTENSITY NEAR 110 KT, WHILE SATCON IS NEAR 90 KT. BASED ON A BLEND

OF THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN

INCREASED TO 100 KT, MAKING MADELINE A MAJOR (CATEGORY 3) HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HURRICANE HUNTERS FROM

THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON ARE SLATED TO BEGIN FLYING

INVESTIGATIVE FLIGHTS INTO MADELINE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL

GIVE US VALUABLE INFORMATION AS TO MADELINE'S ACTUAL INTENSITY AND

SIZE.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/09 KT, WITH

MADELINE CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LIES FAR NORTH OF MADELINE, WITH THE

SYSTEM GENERALLY TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY

THIS TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

OR SO, AFTER WHICH TIME THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FILL, AND MID-

LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.

GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN TRACKING MADELINE TOWARD THE WEST-=