WTPA45 PHFO 291442 RRA

TCDCP5



HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

500 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016



MADELINE'S CLOUD-COVERED EYE RE-EMERGED BY 1200 UTC WITH A

COOLER-TOPPED AND INCREASINGLY WELL-FORMED EYEWALL. ORGANIZATION

CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR DEFORMATION PRESENT.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.0/90

KT FROM SAB AND PHFO TO 4.5/77 KT FROM JTWC, WHILE UW-CIMSS PROVIDED

AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 81 KT. WE WILL COMPROMISE AND ASSIGN

MADELINE AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY CYCLE,

REPRESENTING CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM.



THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR MADELINE HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST

EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

CONTINUES TO ALLOW MADELINE TO GAIN LATITUDE AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS

ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS

SHOW THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS,

GRADUALLY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO STEER MADELINE ALONG A MORE WESTERLY

TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THIS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING ALREADY,

WITH 6 HOUR MOTION NOTICEABLY TO THE LEFT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST 12

HOUR MOTION. BY 72 HOURS, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG

SOUTHWARD AGAIN, PROMPTING MOST TRACK GUIDANCE TOWARD WESTERLY

TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AGAIN ON DAYS 4 AND 5. TRACK GUIDANCE

REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 72 HOURS, DEPICTING A SHALLOW S-CURVE

WESTWARD THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY THE

GRADUAL TURN WESTWARD TO WEST NORTHWESTWARD AFTERWARDS. THE FORECAST

TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE CLOSELY, BUT WAS ALTERED SLIGHTLY=