WTPA45 PHFO 290238

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

500 PM HST SUN AUG 28 2016



There has been little change in the cloud pattern around Madeline

over the past several hours with just brief bursts of colder cloud

tops seen in IR imagery. Latest Dvorak intensity estimates from the

fix centers came in at 3.5 or 55 kt from JTWC and SAB and 4.0 or 65

kt from PHFO. Thus have kept the intensity of Madeline at 55 kt with

this advisory package.



Madeline continues to track along the southwest edge of a

subtropical ridge. A narrow ridge aloft separates Madeline from

a trough to the northwest. The global models are in good agreement

showing the trough lifting out to the northeast in a couple of days

as a ridge builds along 160W. As that ridge builds, Madeline should

curve toward the west, then slightly south of west with a slight

increase in forward speed. The latest forecast track has been

shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast track and

lies close to HWRF and consensus guidance.



Model guidance indicates that there is a small window for

intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours as vertical wind

shear remains low and warm sea surface temperatures lie along its

path. Beyond 36 hours, guidance indicates that west to southwest

vertical wind shear will increase. The latest intensity forecast

follows closely with the previous forecast bringing Madeline up to

hurricane strength during the 24 to 36 hour time frame before a slow

weakening trend begins. This follows closely with most of the

reliable guidance.



The confidence in the track forecast decreases by day 3, so it is

too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the

Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.  It is important to

remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for

central Pacific tropical cyclones is around 185 and 250 miles,

respectively.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  29/0300Z 17.4N 143.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  29/1200Z 18.1N 144.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  30/0000Z 18.8N 146.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  30/1200Z 19.1N 148.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  31/0000Z 19.2N 149.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  01/0000Z 18.7N 154.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  02/0000Z 17.9N 158.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  03/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

Forecaster Burke