WTPA45 PHFO 282046 RRA

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 AM HST SUN AUG 28 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND MADELINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER

THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SEEN NEAR THE SYSTEM'S

CENTER. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THE FIX CENTERS

CAME IN AT 3.5 OR 55 KT. THUS WE HAVE RAISED THE INTENSITY OF

MADELINE TO 55 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.



MADELINE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A NARROW RIDGE ALOFT SEPARATES MADELINE FROM

A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

SHOWING THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS

AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 160W. AS THAT RIDGE BUILDS, MADELINE SHOULD

CURVE TOWARD THE WEST, THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST WITH A SLIGHT

INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY

WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO HWRF AND CONSENSUS

GUIDANCE.



MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR CONTINUED

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIE ALONG ITS

PATH. BEYOND 36 HOURS, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEST TO SOUTHWEST

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST

FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGH IT DOES BRING

MADELINE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME

FRAME BEFORE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEGINS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY

WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.



THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DECREASES BY DAY 3, SO IT IS=