WTPA45 PHFO 020858 RRA

TCDCP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION

NEAR THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF

MADELINE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A 0511Z AMSU PASS WAS HELPFUL IN

DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC, AND BASED ON SATELLITE

ANIMATIONS, THE INITIAL MOTION OF MADELINE IS SET TO 265 DEGREES AT

13 KNOTS. THE LATEST DVORAK FIXES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES WERE

TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY FROM SAB, 1.5/25-30KT FROM JTWC TO 2.5/35KT

FROM PHFO. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PHFO AND JTWC CURRENT

INTENSITIES, MADELINE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30KT TROPICAL

DEPRESSION.



MADELINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE

NORTH OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL CPHC TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED

SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, TO CLOSELY

FOLLOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND

THE GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) CONSENSUS FROM 36 HOURS THROUGH DISSIPATION.



MADELINE IS ENCOUNTERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS PRODUCT AND SHIPS

ANALYSIS. THIS WIND SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR

WILL COUNTERACT VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO

29C, AND LEAD TO SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MADELINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FRIDAY OR

FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS=