WTPA45 PHFO 020254 RRA

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

500 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016



SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF

MADELINE HAS DETERIORATED. REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN A

SMALL CLUSTER OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES

WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB. THE CIMSS ADT

SHOWED 33 KT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE MAY NO

LONGER BE A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER BASED ON THE 2042 UTC ASCAT

PASS SHOWING ONLY A TROUGH IN THE WIND FIELD WITH 30 KT WINDS TO THE

NORTH. ANALYSIS OF THE ASCAT AMBIGUITY AND NRCS DATA ALSO SUGGEST

THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROUGH. IF THERE IS STILL A LOW LEVEL CENTER,

IT IS QUITE SMALL. THIS ADVISORY IS BASED ON THE CONSERVATIVE

ASSUMPTION THAT A LOW LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS AND HAS AN INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 35 KT.



DESPITE THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE MODERATE TO STRONG

VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST AND

NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND

HWRF PROJECT CONTINUED WEAKENING TOWARD DISSIPATION WHILE THE LGEM

AND DSHP MAINTAIN MADELINE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH THE

FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS MORE IN LINE WITH

THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HWRF, CALLING FOR MADELINE TO BECOME A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT THEN A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN

ABOUT 2 DAYS IF NOT SOONER.



THE PRESUMED CENTER OF MADELINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST, 270

DEGREES, AT 11 KT. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY A

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN=