WTPA45 PHFO 012053 RRA

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016



BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MADELINE HAVE CONTINUED

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS SHIELD,

AN SSMIS PASS AT 1437 UTC AND ASCAT NRCS DATA FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE

INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE

SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES

CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC, AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB.

CIMSS ADT INDICATED 33 KT AND CIMSS SATCON SHOWED 42 KT. USING A

BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY

HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LAST NIGHT'S

ASCAT PASS SHOWED ALL VALUES AT LESS THAN 35 KT THOUGH DEEP

CONVECTION WAS LESS ACTIVE DURING THE TIME OF THE PASS.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 260/11 KT. MADELINE APPEARS

TO HAVE TURNED MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO

STEERING BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND

NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3

DAYS, WITH THE GFDL A NOTABLE NORTHERN OUTLIER. THE FORECAST IS

LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH PLACES THE CENTER

OF MADELINE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND ON SATURDAY.



THE MAIN FACTOR INFLUENCING THE INTENSITY OF MADELINE OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL

AFFECT THE SYSTEM SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE OCEANIC

HEAT CONTENT ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A STRONGER CYCLONE.=