WTPA45 PHFO 011458 RRA

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

500 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016



AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WHERE MADELINE HAD A RATHER RAGGED

SATELLITE PRESENTATION, A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR

THE CENTER AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND HAS SINCE PERSISTED WITH AN

ABUNDANCE OF LIGHTNING. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM SAB/HFO/GTW WERE A UNANIMOUS 3.0/45 KT, AND THE

INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ONCE AGAIN 260/12 KT.

ALTHOUGH MADELINE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE

PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A WESTWARD MOVEMENT

WILL RESUME SHORTLY AS MADELINE IS STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL

RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS

MADELINE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON DAYS 3

AND 4, A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. THE UPDATED

TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUITE

AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST HWRF

GUIDANCE.



DESPITE MOVING OVER WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG

HURRICANE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE MADELINE

STEADILY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS ON DAY 5. THE PRIMARY

FACTOR DRIVING THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO

WESTERLY SHEAR SUPPLIED BY A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOW

NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE SHIPS INDICATES SOME

REINTENSIFICATION IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS, THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF, WHICH=