WTPA45 PHFO 010900

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

1100 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016



All data sources indicate that Madeline continues to steadily

weaken, with a severely degraded satellite appearance. Now that the

decaying cyclone is beginning to slowly distance itself from the

main Hawaiian Islands, hurricane hunters from the 53rd Weather

Reconnaissance Squadron are making their final flight into Madeline.

The aircraft found the poorly defined low-level center further south

and east than expected, close to an area of newly-developed deep

convection seen in infrared satellite images. Highest flight-level

winds were on the order of 40 kt, while SFMR detected winds as high

as 49 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Radar data from South Point

on the Big Island earlier detected a well-developed mid-level

circulation that was displaced northeastward from where the

low-level center appeared to be, due to southwesterly shear,

estimated to be near 18 kt by UW-CIMSS analyses. Based on a

conservative blend of the aircraft data, the initial intensity for

this advisory has been reduced to 45 kt.



The initial motion for this advisory is 260/12 kt. The primary

steering flow for the increasingly shallow cyclone is being provided

by a strong low to mid level ridge to the northwest and north of

Hawaii, and this feature will keep Madeline heading generally

toward the west over the next couple of days. The guidance suite is

more tightly clustered than 24 hours ago, except for some

along-track differences in the reliable guidance, with the ECMWF

indicating a faster forward speed than the GFS. The updated track

forecast parallels the previous after accounting for a southward

shift in the initial position, and lies close to the TVCN

consensus.



Despite moving over waters sufficiently warm to support a

hurricane, the intensity forecast anticipates that the cyclone will

continue to steadily weaken due to debilitating shear provided by a

retrograding upper-level trough now centered to the northeast of the

Hawaiian Islands. The expectation is that Madeline will weaken to a

depression by Friday, a remnant low by day 3, with dissipation

occurring by day 5, in line with guidance provided by the GFS and

ECMWF. While SHIPS and LGEM indicate some reintensification in the

later forecast, this does not appear likely at this time.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  01/0900Z 16.9N 156.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  01/1800Z 16.7N 158.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  02/0600Z 16.6N 160.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  02/1800Z 16.4N 163.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  03/0600Z 16.2N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 72H  04/0600Z 16.5N 170.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  05/0600Z 17.5N 175.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Birchard