WTPA45 PHFO 010836 RRA

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016

500 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MADELINE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE. THE

LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN

SEMICIRCLE, AND DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST

QUADRANT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT OUT OF

SAB, 55 FROM HFO, AND 65 KT FROM JTWC.  A U.S. AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE CENTER AND

REPORTED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 44 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

HOWEVER, THE AIRCRAFT MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE STRONGEST WINDS IN

THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A BLEND OF THE

DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 250/11 KT. MADELINE IS BEING

STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE

NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF HAWAII. ALONG THIS TRACK, MADELINE WILL PASS

JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII (HAWAII COUNTY) TONIGHT. ON

THURSDAY, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTERLY TRACK, AWAY

FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY

WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE

FROM THE PRIOR ADVISORY AND CONTINUES TO RUN ALONG THE NORTHERN

PORTION OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE. THERE ARE SOME ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE,

WITH THE ECMWF BEING NOTABLY FASTER WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF

MADELINE.



MADELINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH=