WTPZ43 KNHC 310858 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

200 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016



LESTER CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A DISTINCT 20 NM DIAMETER EYE IN THE

MIDDLE OF A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH NO BANDING FEATURES.  SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT 6.5 AND 6.0

CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE CIMSS ADVANCED

DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS AT 6.6.  A BLEND OF THESE GIVES 120 KT MAXIMUM

WINDS AT THE INITIAL TIME, THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.



LESTER IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPERIENCE QUITE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE

NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH THE LUKEWARM SSTS AND ABOUT 40 PERCENT

HUMIDITY AIR ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTAINING HIGH

INTENSITIES. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND ITS ENVIRONMENT

SUGGEST THAT LESTER MAY HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE,

WHICH TENDS TO WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY OVER TIME.  THE 00Z INTENSITY

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE 18Z MODEL SUITE. THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST - SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT IN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY - IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE

HWRF THEREAFTER.



LESTER IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT.  A LARGE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH IS PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING

AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE

INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF

FORWARD SPEED.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE TVCN

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE TRACK

FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



A 0604Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED=