WTPZ43 KNHC 310256 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

800 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016



LESTER HAS SHOWN A SUDDEN REINTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING AS A

SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS ENCIRCLING A 25 NM

DIAMETER WARM EYE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND

TAFB ARE AT 6.5 AND 6.0 CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS, RESPECTIVELY,

WHILE THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS AT 6.3.  A BLEND OF

THESE GIVES 120 KT MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE INITIAL TIME, UP

CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



LESTER IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPERIENCE QUITE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR FOR

THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH THE LUKEWARM SSTS AND 40-50 PERCENT

HUMIDITY AIR ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTAINING HIGH

INTENSITIES.  THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND ITS ENVIRONMENT

SUGGEST THAT LESTER MAY BE EVOLVING INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE,

WHICH TENDS TO WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY OVER TIME.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF AND DSHP MODELS, AND IS ABOVE THAT

FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.



LESTER IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KT.  A LARGE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH IS PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING

AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE

INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST OR

WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF

FORWARD SPEED.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE TVCN

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



NO NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ABOUT LESTER'S INITIAL WIND RADII,=