WTPZ43 KNHC 280250 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016



LESTER HAS GONE THROUGH SOME IMPRESSIVE CHANGES THIS EVENING.  THE

WELL-DEVELOPED EYE HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS

ON SATELLITE IMAGES, WITH DECREASING CONVECTION NOTED IN THE EASTERN

EYEWALL.  A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES

SUPPORTED INCREASING THE WINDS TO 95 KT AT THE SYNOPTIC TIME, BUT

I HAVE ELECTED TO SHOW AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KT GIVEN THE

RECENT DEGRADATION ON SATELLITE.



THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE IN A LOW-SHEAR, MARGINAL-MOISTURE

ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ONLY GRADUALLY

DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS LESTER MOVES NEARLY

PARALLEL TO THE TYPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC SST GRADIENT.  MOST OF THE

GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LESTER'S INTENSITY WILL PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT

24 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY FALL.  THIS IS A TRICKIER FORECAST THAN IT

SEEMS BECAUSE THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE REMINISCENT

OF THOSE NECESSARY FOR AN ANNULAR HURRICANE, WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP

LESTER STRONGER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.  AT THIS POINT, GIVEN

THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS

KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/11.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LESTER SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD

COURSE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME,

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND

ANY POTENTIAL BINARY INTERACTION WITH MADELINE.  THERE HAVE BEEN

VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL GUIDANCE SUITE, AND THE NEW NHC=