WTPZ43 KNHC 270250 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING

THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND AN EYE BECAME EVIDENT ON THE 0200 UTC

NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGE. A CONVECTIVE RING WAS ALSO OBSERVED ON THE LAST

SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AT 2344 UTC.  ON THIS BASIS, AND A DVORAK

ESTIMATE FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65

KT. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3

DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND

IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,

LESTER WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER

AIR. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS, AND

SHOWS LESTER AS A HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IN ABOUT

5 DAYS.



THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 280

DEGREES AT 8 KT. LESTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY

FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING

FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS

PATTERN STRONGLY FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF A WESTWARD MOTION FOR

THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE STEERING

FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SO WELL ESTABLISHED THAT TRACK MODELS ARE

BASICALLY ON TOP OF EACH OTHER, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE

FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTER-THAN-

NORMAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND DOES NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE

PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  27/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH=