WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016



AFTER THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LESTER APPEARED TO BE RATHER

SHAPELESS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT, VISIBLE PICTURES

INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION

TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD, A

RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT WITHIN THE PAST

COUPLE OF HOURS.  AS A RESULT, DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 4.0

AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED

HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CENTER HAS

PASSED ABOUT 50 N MI SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND DURING THE PAST FEW

HOURS, AND A WEATHER STATION ON THAT ISLAND HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED

WINDS OF 46 KT WITH A GUST TO 62 KT.



LESTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN

STEADY STRENGTHENING.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SLIGHTLY COOLER

WATERS AND LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO

INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE NHC

FORECAST CALLS FOR LESTER TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT, WHICH IS

IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE PERIOD,

THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE, BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.



RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT LESTER IS

CENTERED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION, AND THE LATEST

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  THE=