WTPA41 PHFO 062042 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  53

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 AM HST TUE SEP 06 2016



WHILE LESTER IS OVER RELATIVELY COOL 25C WATER THIS MORNING, THE

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN AN

ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. LATEST

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES, HOWEVER, SHOW WANING DEEP

CONVECTION, WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY HELPING TO DETERMINE THAT THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF

DIMINISHING MID-AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR

THIS ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT, PARTIALLY BASED ON GLOBAL

MODEL ANALYSES THAT DEPICT A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN

SEMICIRCLE. MEANWHILE, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM, RANGING FROM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY

FROM SAB, TO 1.5/25 KT FROM GTW USING A SUBTROPICAL TECHNIQUE, TO A

CURRENT INTENSITY OF 2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO.



LESTER IS TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO

THE EAST, AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST,

WITH AN INITIAL MOTION VECTOR ESTIMATE OF 010/10 KT. LESTER IS

FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH

INCREASING FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS BY DAY 3. THIS

WILL OCCUR AS LESTER ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, BECOMES

EMBEDDED IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD

OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

PARALLELS THE PREVIOUS BUT MOVES LESTER AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED,

IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS, ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE,

AND WITH INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (OPC).=