WTPA41 PHFO 050910 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  47

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 PM HST SUN SEP 04 2016



LESTER WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AT 0600 UTC.

HOWEVER, SMALL POCKETS OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN

THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CLOUD

TOPS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 36 THOUSAND FEET.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN

TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THE MAIN CONTRIBUTERS OF LESTER'S WEAKENING

TREND.  THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

ARE 2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB, WHILE JTWC INDICATED LESTER WAS NO

LONGER CLASSIFIABLE. THE LATEST CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS ALSO 2.5/35

KT. BASED ON THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF LESTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY

AND THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WE HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY

TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 320/16 KT. THE LATEST TRACK

GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, TAKING LESTER ALONG A

NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL

SLOWING AND A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.

LESTER IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH

4, FOLLOWED BY ABSORPTION BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM ON DAY 5.

LESTER IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED

NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE

WEST. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE,

AND LIES CLOSE TO THE IVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE OCEAN

PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED INPUT FOR THE 72 AND 96 HOUR POSITIONS.=