WTPA41 PHFO 050910

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  47

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 PM HST SUN SEP 04 2016



Lester was completely devoid of deep convection at 0600 UTC.

However, small pockets of cumulonimbus clouds have redeveloped in

the northwestern semicircle during the past couple of hours. Cloud

tops of the thunderstorms are estimated to be near 36 thousand feet.

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler ocean

temperatures are likely the main contributers of Lester's weakening

trend.  The latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates

are 2.5/35 kt from PHFO and SAB, while JTWC indicated Lester was no

longer classifiable. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is also 2.5/35

kt. Based on the current appearance of Lester in satellite imagery

and these intensity estimates, we have lowered the initial intensity

to 40 kt for this advisory.



The initial motion for this advisory is 320/16 kt. The latest track

guidance remains tightly clustered, taking Lester along a

northwestward path through the next 24 hours, followed by gradual

slowing and a northward turn during the 36 to 48 hour time frame.

Lester is then forecast to accelerate northeast from days 3 through

4, followed by absorption by a larger extratropical system on day 5.

Lester is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge located

northeast of the system and an upper level trough located to the

west. The latest forecast track closely follows the previous one,

and lies close to the IVCN and GFEX consensus guidance. The Ocean

Prediction Center provided input for the 72 and 96 hour positions.



Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone

will remain near its current intensity through 72 hours, with slow

weakening by day 4. The latest intensity forecast follows along with

this, keeping the system at it present intensity through day 3.

Beyond 48 hours, Lester is forecast to transition to an

extra-tropical gale low over the North Pacific Ocean in around 72

hours. This intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS and

the IVCN consensus guidance.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/0900Z 27.9N 162.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  05/1800Z 29.4N 164.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  06/0600Z 31.4N 165.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  06/1800Z 33.3N 165.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  07/0600Z 35.4N 165.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  08/0600Z 41.5N 162.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  09/0600Z 48.0N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Houston