WTPA41 PHFO 050246 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  46

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 PM HST SUN SEP 04 2016



THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF LESTER IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN

EARLIER TODAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ONCE AGAIN REMOVED FROM THE

DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.0/45 KT PHFO AND 2.5/35 KT FROM

SAB AND JTWC. BASED ON THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF LESTER IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY AND THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WE HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY

TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/15 KT. THE LATEST TRACK

GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, TAKING LESTER ALONG A

NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH ABOUT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL

SLOWING AND A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.

LESTER IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 3 THROUGH

5. LESTER IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH

OF LATITUDE 30N. HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM IS CAUSING LESTER TO MOVE

NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE

PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND RELIABLE MODEL

GUIDANCE. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WAS COORDINATED WITH FOR THE

72, 96 AND 120 HOUR POSITIONS.



STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE

UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE AT 33 KT WHILE THE SHIPS ESTIMATE IS 23 KT. MOST

OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR

OR AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING ON

DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 MAINLY DUE TO COOLER WATER AND EXTRA-TROPICAL=