WTPA41 PHFO 041519 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  44

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 AM HST SUN SEP 04 2016



A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO NEAR 50 THOUSAND FEET

DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF

LESTER. HOWEVER, THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ALSO EVIDENT SOUTH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS,

WHICH IS NOT A SIGN OF A HEALTHY TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOUTHWESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF NEAR 25 KT IS CAUSING LESTER TO CONTINUE

WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST EVENING, A 0710 UTC ASCAT PASS

OVER MOST OF LESTER'S CIRCULATION SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS OF

45 KT OR GREATER, WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE LATEST

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35

KT FROM SAB, TO 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. THE LATEST CIMSS ADT

ESTIMATE IS 2.1/31 KT. BASED ON THE DEGRADED APPEARANCE OF LESTER

IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WE HAVE

INITIALIZED THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 305/15 KT. THE LATEST TRACK

GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, TAKING LESTER ALONG A

NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH 36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL SLOWING

AND A NORTHWARD TURN ON DAY 2. LESTER IS THEN THEN ACCELERATED

NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 TO 5. LESTER IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED

BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF LATITUDE 30N. HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS

IN THIS RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE

NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE

PREVIOUS ONE, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE TVCN AND GFEX=