WTPA41 PHFO 040918 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  43...CORRECTED

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 PM HST SAT SEP 03 2016



LESTER IS NEARLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO

THE HOSTILE IMPACTS OF STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

RANGE FROM 3.0/45 KT FROM SAB TO 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. THE

LATEST CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 2.9/43 KT. BASED ON THE DEGRADED

APPEARANCE OF LESTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THESE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES, WE HAVE DOWNGRADED LESTER TO A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/13 KT. AS WITH PREVIOUS

RUNS, THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, TAKING

LESTER ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH DAY 2, FOLLOWED BY

GRADUAL SLOWING AND A NORTHWARD TURN ON DAY 3. LESTER IS THEN

THEN STEERED NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. LESTER IS CURRENTLY

BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF LATITUDE 30N.

HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL CAUSE THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THE LATEST

FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT

NUDGING TO THE TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE OCEAN

PREDICTION CENTER COORDINATED THE 4 AND 5 DAY POSITIONS.



ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LESTER WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 5 AS THIS

SYSTEM PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND THE CURRENT 15 TO 20 KT OF

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE

GLOBAL MODELS, NOTABLY GFS, KEEP LESTER STRONGER THROUGH DAY 3 THAN=