WTPA41 PHFO 030251 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 PM HST FRI SEP 02 2016



DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON,

ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF

HOURS. SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 12 TO

21 KT, ACCORDING TO THE SHIP AND CIMSS, RESPECTIVELY, AND AN AMSR2

PASS AT 2214 UTC SUGGESTED THAT LESTER IS TILTING NORTHWARD WITH

HEIGHT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.0/90 KT FROM

SAB AND CIMSS ADT TO 5.5/102 KT OUT OF HFO AND JTWC. GIVEN DATA FROM

AN EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

WILL BE HELD AT 90 KT, WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. U.S. AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BEGIN CONDUCTING MISSIONS INTO LESTER

EVERY SIX HOURS BEGINNING THIS EVENING.



LESTER CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND THE INITIAL MOTION

IS SET AT 290/12 KT. THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW TO

MID LEVEL RIDGE AND IS BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE

EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 160W. LESTER IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE ALONG A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH SATURDAY

AS IT PASSES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

IS FORECAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM INCREASINGLY FEELS

THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. ON TUESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY, LESTER WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH,

CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN EVENTUAL EXTRA-TROPICAL

TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST

ADVISORY. DURING THE TIME WHEN LESTER WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE MAIN=