WTPA41 PHFO 020254

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016



Lester rapidly re-intensified to a major hurricane today as deep

convection strengthened around a well defined eye. Lester has been

moving over an area of warmer SSTs, and modest southeasterly

vertical wind shear appears to have been enhancing outflow to the

west and north of the cyclone. Dvorak current intensity estimates

are up, as all fix agencies came in with 6.0/115 kt. Given how there

has only been a small warming of the cloud tops around the center

since the fix time, the initial intensity will be raised to 110 kt.

U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will be conducting a mission

in Lester during the evening, while an NCAR G-V aircraft is

completing a mission to sample the environment to the north of

Lester.



Lester has begun its much anticipated turn toward the

west-northwest, and the initial motion is set at 285/12 kt. Lester

is moving along the southern flank of a low to mid level ridge and

is coming under the influence of an upper level trough sitting over

Hawaii. This upper level trough is producing a weakness in the ridge

that is causing Lester to move on the west-northwestward track. A

similar general motion is expected over the next two days with a

turn toward the northwest expected on Sunday and beyond. Though the

official track remains close to the prior advisory, the track has

been nudged slightly northward from Friday night and onward, and it

remains very close to the TVCN and the operational GFS, while the

ECMWF projected track remains to the north. A Hurricane Watch

remains in effect for the Big Island (Hawaii County) and Maui

County, and probabilities support the issuance of a Hurricane Watch

for Oahu. Any small deviation from the forecast track could bring

direct and profound impacts to the state, and this possibility must

be considered when making preparations.



With cloud tops showing signs of warming around the center, the

recent intensification trend appears to be coming to an end. Along

the forecast track, Lester will be over slightly cooler SSTs this

evening and beyond, and SHIPS forecasts modest vertical wind shear

to persist during the next couple of days before increasing as

Lester moves closer to the upper level trough. This is expected to

lead to gradual weakening. Given recent trends, the rate of

weakening in the official forecast has been slowed again and is in

line with the SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN through Saturday, then between

the slightly higher IVCN and weaker SHIPS and LGEM beyond that time.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/0300Z 18.7N 146.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  02/1200Z 19.3N 148.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

 24H  03/0000Z 20.1N 150.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  03/1200Z 21.1N 153.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  04/0000Z 22.2N 156.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  05/0000Z 24.9N 161.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  06/0000Z 28.3N 165.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  07/0000Z 33.0N 167.7W   55 KT  65 MPH



$$

Forecaster Wroe