WTPA41 PHFO 011452 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  32

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016



LESTER'S EYE HAS RE-EMERGED FROM CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR

OR SO AND DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO COOL AGAIN, INTO

THE -66 TO -71 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE AS OF 1330 UTC. HOWEVER,

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE ANALYSIS

CENTERS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOWLY WEAKENING SYSTEM. THESE

ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.0/90 KT FROM PHFO TO 4.5/77 KT FROM JTWC AND

SAB. UW-CIMSS PROVIDED AN ADT OF 4.8/85 KT. GIVEN LESTER'S VERY

RECENT EYE REAPPEARANCE, CONTINUED GOOD ORGANIZATION AND CDO

SYMMETRY WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR DEFORMATION, WE WILL ASSIGN 90 KT

FOR INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS REPRESENTS SLIGHT WEAKENING FROM LAST

TIME, BUT IS AT THE HIGH END OF AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.



INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12 KT. HOWEVER, SOME WOBBLING HAS

ACCOMPANIED THE EYE RE-EMERGENCE. THE STEERING MECHANISM

REMAINS UNCHANGED AS LESTER CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD

ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER

TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALLOW LESTER TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE

THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY

PACKED, DEPICTING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH

DAY 2, THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AFTERWARDS. UKMET AND GFDL TAKE

LESTER OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BUT ALL OTHER COMMONLY-USED

GUIDANCE TAKE LESTER NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. HWRF IS THE RIGHT

OUTLIER, WHILE ECMWF AND GFS LIE WITHIN THE RIGHT HALF OF THE

ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LAST ONE THROUGH 96=