WTPA41 PHFO 010845 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  31

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016



LESTER'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW

HOURS, WITH THE EYE GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED. CONVECTIVE

CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE WARMED AND ARE NOW IN THE -63 TO

-66 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE. LITTLE OR NO SHEAR DEFORMATION IS

NOTED, WITH OUTFLOW BEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5/77 KT FROM JTWC, 5.0/90

KT FROM PHFO AND 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB. WE WILL ASSIGN LESTER AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY CYCLE, BASED ON A ROUGH

AVERAGE OF THESE THREE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.



INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12 KT AS LESTER MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD

ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER

TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALLOW LESTER TO GRADUALLY BEGIN CURVING WEST

NORTHWEST, THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK

GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 48 HOURS, THEN BEGINS TO

SPREAD OUT AFTERWARDS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL

ENVELOPE LOCATION FROM LAST TIME, BUT GFS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE

RIGHT WITHIN IT, JOINING ECMWF AND HWRF DEPICTING A GENTLY CURVING

TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS LATE DAY 2 THROUGH 4. THE

LITTLE-CHANGED FORECAST TRACK ROUGHLY FOLLOWS TVCN CONSENSUS ALONG

THIS SAME GENERAL PATH. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT

SEVERAL MODELS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, MOST

NOTABLY GFDL AND UKMI, CONTINUE TO SHOW LESTER PASSING OVER THE

ISLANDS AS IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD. IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SMALL=