WTPA41 PHFO 010317 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  30

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016



THE EYE OF LESTER IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE RING TEMPERATURES ARE

GRADUALLY WARMING IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY, DROPPING TO

5.5 (102 KT) FROM BOTH HFO AND SAB, AND 4.5 (77 KT) FROM JTWC. HAVE

LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST,

AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE FAR TO

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT

FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD HAWAII. THE

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN THE DAYS 3-4 TIME FRAME

SHOWING LESTER PASSING UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. LITTLE

CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS. A NOTE OF CAUTION, DESPITE THE

CONSISTENT TRACK FORECAST SHOWING LESTER PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF

THE ISLANDS, IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THERE ARE PLAUSIBLE

SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR THAT SHOW DIRECT IMPACTS TO

THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS POSSIBILITY MUST BE CONSIDERED FOR

PLANNING PREPARATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS MADE AS WELL. LESTER IS

EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER MARGINAL SSTS, BUT IN A RELATIVE LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN=