WTNT42 KNHC 310253 RRA

TCDAT2



HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016

1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016



GASTON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A

LARGE CLEAR EYE AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60C COMPLETELY

SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO

T5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND ARE A LITTLE HIGHER FROM THE OBJECTIVE

ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 105 KT, MAKING

GASTON A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN.



GASTON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C FOR AT

LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  IN ADDITION, VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT

EXPECTED TO INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN WHAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE

SYSTEM.  THEREFORE, GASTON SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS

INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY

24 HOURS.  DUE TO COOLER WATERS, A RATHER FAST WEAKENING TREND

IS EXPECTED AFTER 36 HOURS, WITH GASTON LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A

TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW

EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 4 SINCE IT WILL BE

DIFFICULT FOR IT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION OVER COLD

WATER, AND IT SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL

CYCLONE BY DAY 5.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE

ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/9 KT.  GASTON IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE

MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE

TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SOME

REDUCTION IN SPEED IS THEN FORECAST TO START BY DAY 3 ONCE GASTON

BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE=