WTNT42 KNHC 301439 RRA

TCDAT2



HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016

1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016



MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS COMPLETED AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  THE EYE IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS

OVERNIGHT AND IT HAS CONTRACTED SOME.  IN ADDITION, THE CONVECTIVE

PATTERN HAS GAINED SYMMETRY, AND DRY SLOTS THAT WERE APPARENT

OVERNIGHT ARE NO LONGER EVIDENT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

INCREASED A LITTLE TO 90 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK

CLASSIFICATION OF 5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS

FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.



FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO

WHILE GASTON REMAINS IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN ATMOSPHERE OF

INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE A

STEADY WEAKENING TREND LIKELY BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR

THURSDAY.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE

PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT IS LARGELY UNCHANGED OTHERWISE.

THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL

CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/7 KT.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO

THE NORTHWEST OF GASTON SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME MORE

EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  AS A RESULT, GASTON WILL

LIKELY ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH GASTON AND IT SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE

TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLOW DOWN.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS=