WTNT42 KNHC 280254 RRA

TCDAT2



HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  22

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016

1100 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016



GASTON HAS BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE ON

MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY SHOWING UP ON

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PICTURES.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/77 KT

FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 75

KT. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR GASTON, OTHER THAN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR,

LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  WHILE

THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

OVERALL, GASTON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY, WHICH COULD UPWELL

SOME COOLER WATER.  THUS THE WIND SPEED FORECAST WILL BE LEVELED

OFF AFTER 24 HOURS.  A MORE CONSISTENT WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED

BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND

EXPERIENCES STRONGER SHEAR.  THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS HIGHER

THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, MOSTLY OWING TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS, AND

IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS.



SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT GASTON IS MOVING SLOWER TO THE NORTHWEST,

AT ABOUT 7 KT.  THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECELERATE OVER THE

NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND

HAVE A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDE IS FORECAST TO REACH

GASTON IN ABOUT 3 DAYS, WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO

RECURVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED THAN

YOU NORMALLY SEE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED

MUCH SINCE THE LAST CYCLE, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN=