WTNT42 KNHC 241457 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016

1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016



CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY



GASTON'S OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH

A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WITH HINTS OF A PROTOTYPE EYE

WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  A SOLID BAND, ATTACHED TO THE CDO,

WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.  A 1234 UTC ASCAT

PASS SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND ESTIMATE AT 60 KT.



GASTON COULD STILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TODAY.  HOWEVER, THE

SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 52W

IS FORECAST TO GREATLY INCREASE OVER GASTON AND PEAK IN 36 TO 48

HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER WARMER

WATERS AT THAT TIME, THE SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ARREST ITS

DEVELOPMENT OR PERHAPS EVEN RESULT IN WEAKENING.  BY 72 HOURS,

GASTON'S INVOLVEMENT WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD LESSEN AND THE SHEAR

SHOULD DECREASE.  MUCH LOWER WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TOWARD THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD GIVE GASTON AN OPPORTUNITY

TO RE-STRENGTHEN, AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY, AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS

OF AROUND 29 DEG C.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SOME

COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS, BUT SHOWS SLIGHTLY

GREATER INTENSIFICATION BY 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN

GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON'S HEADING HAS A MUCH GREATER

NORTHERLY COMPONENT, AND THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS=