WTPZ42 KNHC 200245 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016

900 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016



KAY HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LARGE CDO PATTERN, AND THE LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION HAS MOVED FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE

CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN

INCREASING, EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE IT IS

RESTRICTED BY MODEST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE

CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND ADT

VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AND ARE NOW T3.6/57 KT. BASED

ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.



MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT KAY IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD

OR 305/6 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE

NORTH OF KAY DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TURN THE

STORM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT,

A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN KAY WILL BE A

SHALLOW REMNANT LOW STEERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWIND

FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN

THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.



THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE

NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT

WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT CAN NOT BE

PREDICTED TEMPORALLY. WITH THE 850-200-MB VERTICAL WIND SHEAR=