WTPZ42 KNHC 191435 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016

900 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016



SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0850 UTC AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE

SHOW THAT KAY'S CENTER OF CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED

TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS

ARE CONFINED TO A CURVED BAND WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35

KT AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FINAL-T NUMBER (T2.5) SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.  THEREFORE, SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 2.

FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST, KAY SHOULD GRADUALLY

WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND

OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 25C.  THE LARGE-SCALE

MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THAT

TIME.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND

REFLECTS KAY DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT BASED ON THE

EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOCORRO

ISLAND, KAY APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT 320/7 KT.  THE SOCORRO ISLAND

OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF

KAY IS PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE

NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS.  THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY=