WTPZ41 KNHC 090245 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016

900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016



A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JAVIER AT 700 MB THIS

EVENING, AS PART OF A RESEARCH MISSION, MEASURED PEAK SFMR-OBSERVED

SURFACE WINDS OF 46 KT. A DROPSONDE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF

1003 MB, BUT WITH A 45-KT SURFACE WIND, WHICH EQUATES TO A PRESSURE

OF ABOUT 999 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED

SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT

JAVIER REMAINS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THAT THE

FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER IS TILTED SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.



SMOOTHING THROUGH THE VARIOUS WOBBLES IN THE FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/04 KT.  JAVIER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE

MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING

MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND

NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME

ERRATIC MOTION AS JAVIER MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA

AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS

ESSENTIALLY JUST AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, WHICH

TAKES JAVIER UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND

LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN.



AIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO REVEALED THAT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAD

PENETRATED INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION, AND THIS WAS PROBABLY THE

MAIN REASON FOR THE EROSION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE

NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH SOME

MODEST CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN=