WTPZ45 KNHC 040853 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016

200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016



SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR APPEAR TO HAVE

TAKEN A TOLL ON IVETTE, AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED

IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.  RECENT

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW VERY LITTLE

BANDING FEATURES AND A SIGNIFICANT DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO

THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DESPITE THE

DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION, OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT

WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THEREFORE, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



A UW/CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSIS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE

SHEAR MAY BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE, HOWEVER THE CURRENT LACK OF

ORGANIZATION AND NEARBY DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT

INTENSIFICATION TODAY.  HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING IS STILL

ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT OR FRIDAY WHEN IVETTE IS FORECAST TO

BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  AFTER DAY 3,

COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THE

WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY

LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL

GUIDANCE, AND IT IS CLOSER TO THE HWRF THAT STILL BRINGS IVETTE

TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.



IVETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE

TROPICAL STORM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36

HOURS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

AFTER THAT TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO=