WTNT45 KNHC 021557 RRA

TCDAT5



TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016

1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016



DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE

STRONG WAVE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED

CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. ON THIS

BASIS, ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EARL HAVE BEEN INITIATED.  THIS

IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON.



THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WAS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS

MORNING, BUT RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION

IS FORMING NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT

WELL ESTABLISHED YET IN ALL QUADRANTS DUE TO SOME SHEAR. MOST OF

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD

BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITH LESS SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR

SOME INTENSIFICATION, AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE

STRENGTH BY THE TIME THE CENTER APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.



EARL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD RAPIDLY AROUND 19 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN

VERY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC

SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

UNITED STATES, AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE

ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS BELIZE AND YUCATAN DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, A WEAKENED EARL SHOULD MOVE

OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE

SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING

CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE

AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NHC FORECAST VERY CLOSELY FOLLOWS=