WTPZ44 KNHC 030257 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016

800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016



HOWARD IS STILL DISPLAYING SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING, BUT THE

EXTENT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING.

CORRESPONDINGLY, THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING AND A

BLEND OF THE TAFB, SAB, AND CIMSS-ADT VALUES INDICATE THE INTENSITY

HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 40-45 KT.  45 KT IS USED AS THE

INITIAL INTENSITY, THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN HOWARD'S

RECENT TRENDS.



THE INITIAL POSITION OF HOWARD HAS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, AS

THERE HAVE BEEN NO MICROWAVE IMAGES AVAILABLE NOR HAS THE

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY BEEN VERY ILLUMINATING.  THE INITIAL

MOTION IS ASSESSED AS 13 KT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AS THE

SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS

NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUGGEST A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED DURING

THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS

THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE TVCN TRACK

MODEL CONSENSUS.



WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVER HOWARD

DURING THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF, THE SSTS THAT HOWARD WILL TRAVERSE

SHOULD GET QUITE COOL AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRY AND STABLE.  AT ABOUT

TWO DAYS, THE SSTS BECOME LUKEWARM BUT THE SHEAR BECOMES

PROHIBITIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT HOWARD

WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND IN ABOUT TWO DAYS LOSE ITS DEEP

CONVECTION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL=