WTPZ44 KNHC 021437 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016

800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016



HOWARD'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE

SOUTHERN EDGE OF A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF CI

NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWARD'S CENTER IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25-26C, AND IT SHOULD REACH SUB-24C

WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  VERTICAL SHEAR, ON THE OTHER HAND,

PROBABLY WON'T BE TOO HOSTILE FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE,

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN 12-24 HOURS AND SHOULD

CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE IS HOLDING HOWARD'S INTENSITY UP A LITTLE LONGER COMPARED

TO PREVIOUS CYCLES, AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS

THIS TREND BEGINNING AT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, LYING CLOSE TO

A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  AT THIS POINT, IT IS

EXPECTED THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD CAUSE HOWARD TO BECOME

POST-TROPICAL BY 72 HOURS, WHICH IS ALSO A LITTLE LATER THAN

INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE IVCN

INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS 5-10 KT HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ON

DAYS 3-5, SO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND

CYCLONE STATUS MAY BE NECESSARY IF IT APPEARS THAT HOWARD COULD HOLD

ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.



THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/13 KT.  HOWARD IS LOCATED NEAR THE

SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED=