WTPZ44 KNHC 020849 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016

200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016



DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED CDO FEATURE.

HOWEVER, RECENT ASCAT WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER

IS DISPLACED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD DUE TO SOME

MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN

INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B OVERPASSES AROUND

0600Z.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13 KT. HOWARD IS FORECAST TO

CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT

48 HOURS OR SO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND, HOWARD

IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE

REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE

TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN, IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.



AFTER THE EARLIER BRIEF CONVECTIVE HIATUS WHILE HOWARD WAS MOVING

OVER A COLD WATER POOL, THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING OVER WARMER WATER,

WHICH LIKELY HAS AIDED IN THE RECENT REDEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT

CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE

TODAY, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO HOWARD MOVING OVER SUB-25 DEG

C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN

12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, THE COMBINATION OF EVEN COOLER

WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE STEADY=