WTPZ44 KNHC 012129 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016

200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016



HOWARD'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST

ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES,

THEY ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO EASTERN HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION.  THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO RECENTLY BECOME EXPOSED, POSSIBLY DUE TO

WESTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.0/45 KT AND

T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB, RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY

ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 45 KT, ON THE LOWER END OF THESE ESTIMATES

BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONE'S DEGRADED APPEARANCE.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH

OF HOWARD IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S STEERING, BUT A

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF IT HAS BEEN IMPARTING A

GREATER NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH

SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE

OF DAYS, AFTER WHICH TIME A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED.  THE

TURN SHOULD OCCUR ONCE HOWARD WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MUCH SHALLOWER

CYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW.  THE NEW NHC TRACK

FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS

QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, BUT WESTERLY SHEAR

OVER HOWARD MAY TEMPER THAT.  WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN ABOUT 24

HOURS, AND THIS RATE OF WEAKENING SHOULD SOON BECOME FASTER AS THE

LARGE-SCALE THERMODYNAMIC BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE.  REMNANT LOW=