WTPZ44 KNHC 011443 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016

800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016



HOWARD'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING IN

ORGANIZATION.  THE CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A

LONG CURVED BAND, AT THE HEAD OF WHICH IS A CLEARING AROUND THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE

T2.5/35 KT AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB, RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND

OF THESE IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45

KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  HOWARD'S PRIMARY STEERING

MECHANISM IS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED

OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WHICH IS IMPARTING A MOSTLY

WESTERLY COURSE.  HOWEVER, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE

CYCLONE IS ALLOWING FOR A GREATER NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION.

THIS GENERAL MOVEMENT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AFTER WHICH TIME A TURN TOWARD THE WEST

IS LIKELY.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR WHEN HOWARD WEAKENS AND BECOMES A

SHALLOWER CYCLONE IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK

FORECAST IS HARDLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST

TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.



SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE,

PERHAPS RELATED TO HOWARD'S OUTRUNNING THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE

OVER IT. OTHERWISE, LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  BY 36-48 HOURS, HOWARD SHOULD REACH MUCH

COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE=