WTPZ44 KNHC 010238 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016

800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES

INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE

SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH SOME THIN AND FRAGMENTED

BANDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS

LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS CLASSIFICATION. GIVEN THE

LACK OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD

AT 30 KT.



SOME STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE

DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN CONDUCIVE

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.  THE STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD BE

RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THOUGH SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE

OVER COOL WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 36

HOURS, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS

LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE.



SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 295 DEGREES, AT ABOUT 10 KT.  A SLIGHTLY FASTER

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS.  A TURN

TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE SHALLOW

CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS=