WTPZ43 KNHC 260232 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016

800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016



GEORGETTE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE

EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS STILL APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGES, IT IS

MUCH LESS DISTINCT THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  IN ADDITION, THE

CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN APPEARANCE AND IS

STRETCHED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED

TO 85 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS

FROM TAFB, SAB, AND AUTOMATED VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF

WISCONSIN.  GEORGETTE IS A SMALL CYCLONE, AND BASED ON EARLIER

SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND ONLY 40 N

MI FROM THE CENTER.



THE HURRICANE IS OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25 DEG C, AND IT IS HEADED FOR

EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE UNFAVORABLE

OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS AND AN INCREASE

IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL STEADY OR EVEN RAPID

WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE

SHIPS GUIDANCE AND NOW CALLS FOR GEORGETTE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW

IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4.



SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GEORGETTE HAS SLOWED DOWN, AS

PREDICTED, AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/6 KT.  A

CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS

NORTHWEST.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE SHALLOW CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO

TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE IN THE LOW-LEVEL

TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN