WTPZ43 KNHC 250249 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016

800 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016



GEORGETTE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE

HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AROUND THE

CENTER.  THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, SAB, AND CIMSS AT

THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO

115 KT, MAKING GEORGETTE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-

SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE 50-KT INTENSITY

INCREASE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH GEORGETTE IS A MAJOR

HURRICANE, SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT

ITS WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY COMPACT.



GEORGETTE HAS BEEN TAKING ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS OF VERY LOW SHEAR AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS OF ABOUT

27 DEG C DURING ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR

IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GEORGETTE IS

FORECAST TO TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND IT SHOULD CROSS

THE 26 DEG C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THEREFORE, SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND

SHOULD COMMENCE ON MONDAY.  GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE

EMBEDDED IN A DRY AIR MASS AND LOCATED OVER SSTS OF 22-23 DEG C.



THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TOWARD A

WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS

GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING=